Introduction: in the first quarter, China's export volume of corn starch increased significantly, but the domestic demand for corn starch was sluggish, the delivery was poor,and the willingness of enterprises to ship and reduce inventory increased. With the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, the export volume of corn starch may continue toincrease in the second quarter.
In the first quarter, the export volume of corn starch increased by 49.87% year-on-year. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total export of corn starch in the first quarter of 2022 was 46098.01 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 49.87%. The total export volume is USD 23.52 million, and the average export price is USD 510.21/ton. In2022, the export volume of corn starch showed a gradual warming trend, especially in March, the export volume reached 24365.42 tons, a new high since 2021.
In the first quarter, China's corn starch was mainly exported to the Philippines, Indonesia,Thailand, Nigeria, Malaysia and other countries, of which the Philippines and Indonesia were the countries with the most obvious growth in 2022, accounting for 44.67% and 22.28% of the total export volume respectively.
Shandong is the main producing area of corn starch, and its capacity coverage accounts for about 36.6% of the national capacity. It is the province with the largest export volume of corn starch. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the export volume of corn starch in Shandong Province in the first quarter was 32785.43 tons, an increase of 47.52% year-on-year, accounting for 71.12% of the total export volume.
Poor domestic demand and increased export willingness of enterprises
In the first quarter of 2022, the inventory of corn starch industry was gradually rising, which was significantly higher than that in the same period last year. The inventory at the end of the quarter was 983600 tons, with a month on month increase of 28.26% and a year-on-year increase of 8.71%. In April, affected by the poor logistics and transportation in the market and the reduction of terminal demand, the goods in the corn starch Market were not smooth, the enterprise inventory continued to accumulate, and the market bidding sales were fierce. In order to alleviate the inventory pressure, some enterprises have successively reduced the price of corn starch.However, due to the high cost of raw materials and the increasing pressure of enterprise operation and loss, they are more resistant to the continuous decline of prices and start active or passive load reduction production to alleviate various pressures. Overall, in the first quarter, the domestic demand of corn starch market was poor, the inventory pressure of the industry increased, the export willingness of enterprises increased, and the export volume of corn starch gradually increased.
Export volume may increase in the second quarter
According to the customs data, the average export price of corn is 3261.45 yuan / ton in the first quarter. In April, the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate and has reached a new lowsince 2022. When the export price of corn starch has not been adjusted yet, the export price has been reduced by about 4%. Even so, enterprises can still refund 405.05 yuan / ton through export tax rebate (tax rate 13%). According to comprehensive calculation, the average export price of corn starch in the first quarter is 3520.84 yuan / ton, which is still advantageous compared with the average ex factory price of enterprises in Shandong Province of 3300.58 yuan/ton (the above prices do not include freight).
On the one hand, the average export price of corn starch is higher than the domestic spot price, and the export enthusiasm of enterprises is high. On the other hand, under the high inventory pressure of corn starch industry, export can alleviate the inventory pressure of enterprises. Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the export volume of corn starch may increase to a certain extent in the second quarter, but the impact of current local policies and logistics needs to be taken into account, or there are certain restrictions on the increase of export volume.